SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

how this stock can be worth $1.50 in 5yrs

  1. 330 Posts.
    Assumptions:
    *Recent announcement of Niobrara sale royalty of 4.8% (gross) taken in kind.
    *It was stated that the full Niobrara holdings was potentially able to drill 100 wells. Im cutting this to 50 for the sake of conservatism and realism for what can be done over 5 years.
    *Assume the buyer drills 30 wells on their portion
    *Assume SSN drills 20 on their portion
    *Assume 10 Bakken wells are complete with average 35% SSN share
    *Assume $70 oil price.
    *Assume each well produces 1000bopd
    *Assume total production days of 280. Allowing for downtime, holidays etc.

    1. New purchaser builds 30 wells over the next 5yrs @ 1000bopd for 280 days. This gives 7M barrels of oil each year. 4.8% to Samson is 403,000 barrels at $70 each = $28Mp.a.

    2. Samson drills 20 wells on their remaining portion. Now capable due to significant cash injection. 20 wells over the next 5yrs @ 1000bopd for 280 days at $35 profit each = $196M p.a.

    3. Samson finish Bakken. 10 wells @ 1000 bopd for 280 days. 35% interest at $35 per barrel = $34Mp.a.

    Add them all up, 28 + 196 + 34 = $268M pa. Apply conservative PE, say 10 (note, this could be more than 10, market average is 13ish - growth stocks can be up to 20) Gives us a market cap of approx. $2.7B. Shares on issue will be around 1.9B. Share price $1.42.

    Have I missed anything?
    Hmmmmmm, Im just wondering whether I should sell now for a profit?
 
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