All Ords. Time Jan '83: 500 Jan '86: 1000 3yrs Jan '94: 2000 8yrs ? 4000
XAO Peak: '01: 3400 8yrs Mid '93: 1700
The aussie mkt needs to unwind itself away from the dow. It is hard to maintain a medium term bear stance, when:
*Economic management is better than its been for decades * Interest rates are low * RBA ensures the 2-4% inflation is maintained * Financial sector deregulation. * International competitiveness (The $A is still at the all time lower end against the USD and even the Euro - euro currencies, and especially the Yen)
Scared of corporate scandals....corruption....remember IXL, Alan Bond, Skase (Adler) etc.
The xao recovered sharply...especially when interest rates, inflation were extremely high and sectors of the economy were still regulated and hand fed.
When it took us 8yrs to meet our all time high, it took the dow 2yrs.
I am not really bearish on the xao....may have a short term base at around 3000, but considering over the medium term we are continually experiencing strengthening economic growth, the mkt will grow. Towards the end of the year, the aussie bears will rest and there are now beginning to be some opening of opportunities. The aussie stocks don't boast the same over valuations as in the US. Remember the greatest desire for stocks in the late 90's to be given more prominence and be valued much higher. Or what about in 98-99, when they were writing off solid industrials for not being "new economy stocks". With the US, caution certainly needs to be taken.
Dont write the aussie mkt off, there is certainly much less validity for that now compared to the 1980's (when real prblems were there), and the mkt then vigilantly heded its way back.
Buying opportunties are becoming available over the years end, especially after the sept 11 anniversary is over.
