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paparibbs

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20/05/21

16:27

Post #: 53310461
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Originally posted by rustynailz: ↑

The core Australian business is profitable and still growing, thus it has long term value.
My FV of the Australian business hovers around the 350-400M mark, or around 70-80c range.
Everything else baked in relates to the potential growth in NA, of which has been heavily discounted given the current circumstances and environment.

I was a seller at the ridiculous valuations they reached in 2019, and again in 2020.
Why do I still hold?
The core Australian business still holds value and return relative to my cost. Remove the NA business and we would be seeing a regular flow of dividends in my opinion.

I believe NA will still be a successful venture within the next 3 years, albeit the court case may severely dampen that with a bad outcome.

Would I add in your current position? Your risk profile is not matched to risk profile of Nearmap, therefore question you need to ask is if it will ever change? If so why? If the answer is based upon price instead of your personal experience in using and assessing the product then I daresay individual equities are not for you.
I don't know your personal circumstances, but in general I would not seek to crystalize your losses unless you are able to answer the above question.

If i was in your situation (I am going to assume a high $2 low $3 cost), I would seek to create a foundation of market exposure through an ETF, re-assess Nearmap in early 2022 and then decide whether I am best selling at a loss (likely) and moving it into a product that only have systematic risk. If at any stage it reached areas of my valuation whereby the North America business is essentially not included in the price I would add (as I did in March 2020).

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NEA Price at posting: $1.74 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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