Certainly a lot of variables to consider, some of which are...

Certainly a lot of variables to consider, some of which are impossible to quantify. One of the key factors is when gold will peak. In the oil recession of the 70's it didn't peak until about 7 years after it started. We have now had two years of recession but at a guess gold may peak earlier this time maybe in 2010-2011. If a junior is not producing during the peak the gold in the ground will not have the same value.