how will afr get its coal to a port??

Nobody doubts AFR's thermal coal deposit in NE Botswana offers huge potential. The initial discovery has a coal seam averaging 13m in width and in several places it exceeds 16m!! The average depth in a very small 45-55m below surface providing a overburden ratio of only 3.5-4.0!! World class, and incredibly cheap to mine.
The thermal value of coal is yet to be confirmed. It appears more than acceptable to domestic mkt and is very likely suitable for the Indian mkt. Whether it meets the higher grade required by European mkt remains to be confirmed.... but i expect some of the coal to meet the grade.
It's early days for AFR and likely that substantial further discoveries will be made over next 12 months. So tonnages are big and likely to get bigger.
Sovereign risk is a non-issue. Botswana is Africa's success story and is amenable to offering fair terms/taxes to foreign investment. Govt is stable, crime is low and wages are waaay below Western levels. Again these ensure a low reliable cost of production.
Much has been written about the railway passing within 25kms of the coal already discovered. This track heads North into Zimbabwe and into Zambia. It does go to Harare then east thru Mutare to Beira. Beira is a shallow port requiring constant dredging and needs major work if it is to become a coal facility. 0-10% probabilty AFR would use this option imo.
Railway heads south then enters S. Africa where a network of rail in good working order exists. The eastern seaboard offers 2 options both about 1400km from AFR's proposed mine. First is Maputo. This means using Mozambique which has poor, albeit improving, infrastructure. But Maputo port is not geared-up to handle big tonnages of bulk commodities, and it is years away from being so. Plus the mozambique govt has no cash to build such a facility. Richard's bay in SA is world's largest coal loading facility. The infrastructure is top-notch. But 2 obstacles exist. R. Bay is already fully booked by the many coal producers in SA who serve the lucrative European mkt. CCC have made much mileage from this by emphasising 2 mines they have bought have a 'quota' at R. Bay. The other obstacle is that everything in Africa is political. The current ANC govt sees itself as a 'revolutionary' party and offers support to other left-wing regimes such as the murderous Zanu PF party of Mugabe. They are not close to the Western orientated Botswana govt, and I doubt they will offer any favours to coal that competes with their own mines for space on rail wagons/lines and port facilities. In the articles i read regarding a rail outlet for Botswana SA is mentioned in first release in early 2009, but not since then. I rate R.Bay a 10-20% chance for AFR. So that leaves the West Coast in Nambia. Walvis Bay is a moderate size port but has no infrastructure for bulk commodities. The Namibiam govt (despite its marxist origins) is certainly amenable to having someone invest heavily into Walvis Bay and bring the port up-to-scratch. Substantial capital required but IMF/World bank would probably lend a hand. Then there's the 1500km rail line to be built. It runs through a national park and some difficult country.... but it is constructable. Would cost $2m-4m/Km and take 5-7 years to complete. I rate that as the most likely option for large tonnages being exported.

So we have massive capital requirement and 5+yrs B4 a single ton is loaded onto a ship. Problem for India is that W.Coast trip is double the distance of that from E.Coast. Would indian investors be willing to invest into a rail to W. Bay? Who knows... but my point is that the current rail running past AFR's tenements is a long-shot solution to getting coal to port. IMO invstors need to build this into the calculations.


http://www.mg.co.za/article/2010-01-28-transkalahari-coal-line-seen-in-five-years

http://www.trademarksa.org/node/2798

http://palapye.wordpress.com/2009/12/22/bids-for-trans-kalahari-railway-line-project-called-for/

http://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?sid=1&aid=8&dir=2009/June/Friday5