I think it is a little too early to have an idea of when a mine might be setup because there are many factors which influence this. I prefer to take a conservative approach and agree that yes it could be a long time, if it is any sooner then I will be just as happy. Economically viable coal in the ground that could be accessed is more what I am looking for at this stage.
Yes it would need lots of cash and infrastructure, however, I dont think this would be a problem if the resource is supported to be large enough. Energy and more importantly access to energy is 'vital' to modern living. Whichever way you want to generate it! That to me is the value in holding energy stock.
In most of human development if you look at the major increases in population (As an indicator) it is generally occuring when access to energy is increased... the industrial revolution (steam engine), power by animals, access to gas, oil an so on. We have only taken off as a species in the past decade or so and this 'will' present challenges. Like any organism in a fixed environment we will grow an grow and consume any available resources to sustain ourselves. As they get lower an lower, competition for the same resources increases and it becomes survival of the fitest. An yes you can argue that health care increases an other factors influence this, an they do, however I would question whether these other factors could have been achieved without access to energy.
Very true that we do not know what coal prices will be in the future as this will depend on factors at the time. You raise a valid issue that there are many other sources being developed and may hit the market at the same time. My general thoughts are to consider the rising demand for energy (Esp in China, India & some of the other developing economies are all finding a use for lots of energy) and whether all of these combined developing sources would meet a future demand (Given growth estimations) is debatable.
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