How will Novonix compete?, page-12

You need to look beyond you tube videos and company presentations, they are just an entre. Hitachi Chemical was making 10000 tonnes per annum of Synthetic graphite several years ago and they wouldn't have been twiddling their thumbs in the mean time. This a company with huge resources of chemical engineers and scientists with decades of experience in large scale commercial chemical production which they can bring to bear in this area. And Hitachi is just one of a handful of large scale suppliers of SG already operating at scale.

Novonix is a minnow centered around boffins in university labs.

I also note that in recent company presentations they compare their technology favorably to Tesla 18650 cells which they claim as the best on the market. But it has already been demonstrated that the Tesla larger format cells in the model3(which have been around for three years) have significantly superior efficiency and charging capability. That raises an eyebrow for me.

If Novonix had a graphite material that was massively superior to anything else on the market I'd give them a chance. But given that it is only incremental(if at all) I don't think they will go anywhere. I also note that back in early 2017 when they merged with Coulometrics/Novonix and the hype machine was in over drive, they were claiming to be at a 1000 tpa capacity by the end of 2017. I bet a bunch of mug punters fell for that back then.
The 1000 tpa capacity magically kept disappearing down the road with each new presentation. And here we are in mid 2020.

To be fair they are building the capacity now and they have done a bunch of other things which are great. Getting an order from Samsung is also really great. But in the overall scheme of the market it is childs play.

There is a disconnect for me between this company and the reality of the commercial battery market. But we said the same thing about Tesla once.

Perhaps Novonix will do a Tesla. St Baker seems to have a similar eye for vertical integration and he has the particular background experience and smarts that just might pull it off. The US doesn't just "need" a fully integrated battery supply chain, its a requirement.