VPR 0.00% 0.2¢ volt group limited

how willl this company make money

  1. 3,701 Posts.
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    After having read the ASX reports I am at a loss to understand how this company will make any real money without sourcing massive amounts of capital. For a company with such a small market cap I cannot see banks fronting up much support at this early stage so the only alternatine is equity.

    The business looks like a very high capital business

    Please correct me if I am wrong but the bisiness model seems to be that ERJ will fund all the capital for a share of the savings

    I presume I can use the exaple in the June presentation for some rough financials.

    Capital 2.9 to 3.5M
    customer savings 770K and 4000 Tons of CO2 ( This will have no value when the carbon tax is removed)

    At this point i would say that the presentations are in my opinion misleading and it leads the reader to believe that ERJ will earn 770K when this is infact the customers amount saved. Whle it amy be possible that ERJ earns the total amount it seems inconcievable that the company will not get a share of the savings. Otherwise their is no incentive for the customer to allow ERJ to proceed. I would estimate that the customer will want at least 30% of the savings probably more.

    Therefore the return to ERJ pa becomes 539K and a ave capital cost of 3.2M. This is a return of 16% before funding costs. Funding costs are probably 8 to 10% in the unlikely chance that debt funding could be achieved.

    If all the funds were able are equity then after say 20 installs capital would be 64M and revenue 10.7M less say 4m for admin and other costs leaves a profit og 6.7M less tax which would be nill in the early years due to high depreciation write-offs.

    So after 20 intall (how many years is that) profit could be 6.7m after issuing new equity for 64m. If you add on the current market cap to new equity you get 64 + 14 = 78/6.7 = 11.6.

    So unless this company is trading of a PE of more that 11.6 after 20 installs the share price can be worth no more than it is todays.

    Seems like a lot of risk for no real return

 
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