hp what is the depth, page-11

Well, my guess is no better than anyones, but from what I see the flow tests will occur comfortably before the expiry date of GDYO (end of Jan 08).

From the report:

"The root cause of the problem, the case of inadvertently re-setting the weight-on-bit (done by computer touch screen), has been addressed successfully with the rig manufacturer."

This minor glitch had significant consequences, but they are as far from systemic as a problem can be. The weekend failure stemmed from human error, not rig capacity. According to the report:

"All the drill collars and other items likely to have been damaged have now been sent for repair, ranging from straightening to re-cutting threads. This is expected to take around 10 days."

We can reasonably expect drilling to commence on the 2nd November. From here, the recalibrated system should be able to reach previous average speeds which were around 4m per hour.

There is about 700m to go until granite intersection. There is a minor fracture zone at about 4200m (500m of granite drilling), and the major zone starts at around 4300m (600m of granite drilling).

The timeline I would guess at would be: Resume drilling on the 2nd Nov, intersect granites around the 13th (175 hours at average drilling rate, plus an estimated 50% down time, to give 11 days).

At 3700m below the surface, with intense pressure and heat, and with drilling pressure requiring extreme caution and care, I would reduce the drilling rate to 3m per hour and call down-time at a more conservative 60%. This will give us target depth 13 days or so later, about the 20th November.

Considering the rates that HAB2 was drilled, these are conservative expectations, although unexpected errors can occur and could result in additional, unaccounted delays. Allowing one month for further delays, we still have target depth before the end of December.

I expect reports of hydraulic communication by the 18th Nov, as I see 4200m as a guaranteed level for proof of flow.

All that said, I'm no mathematician, and these calculations are just a rough estimate of my own based on current and historical drilling rates, and including casing as down time.

If anyone has anything to add or disagrees with these figure please add your thoughts, and we can try to come up with a decent estimate amongst ourselves.

I nabbed a few GDYO on closing, they look like good value to me at these prices. The risk is much greater than over the past few months, but the likely outcome is success.

Cheers