1. Ip rights - 2 things (a) if you’d go back to the initial post of RJ on this thread there’s a link to a webinar you’ll hear Roly talk about the process being a standard one from as early as 1940’s, and (b) I read somewhere or heard not sure if it was in Sydney conference there’s no risk, fyi supposedly tried to apply for patent for its flow sheet but there’s no requirement as such. Other forum members maybe able to provide more specifics if they have a reference.
2. financial outcome - the ebitda is unbelievably awesome 200m per annum. On that same webinar Roly spoke about the reason this is so disruptively profitable. Read the threads I’ve quoted above. You’ll see comments from Roly that fyi can produce 99.999% that is 3 nines or 4 nines for 5n without any significant capex increment, it’s a matter of adding more leaching (if not calcinating). What that means is that fyi is in control, it doesn’t want to flood the market with a product grade that’s not needed, it can reduce or increase its capacity for the various grades. Btw 4n is $24-$50k per tonne and 5n is $100k per tonne. PE wise, I wouldn’t even bother let alone worry, even a PE of 5 will make fyi a billion dollar company and 10 would mean $2b. Also you will hear him speak about how very conservative the PFS was compared to peers, they’ve basically stripped the numbers all across and used a higher discount rate - for example the deposit supports more than 50 year LOM but they’ve used only 25 years, and a floor sale price of usd24k per tonne even though 4n can fetch as much as $50k per tonne. Cost wise FYI is in the lowest quartile amongst peers.
3. timing of funding - logically funding comes after the dfs. But Roly mentioned there are parties interested to give support particularly among the 25 big customers from Taiwan, Japan, s korea and China that expressed interest in the samples they’ve received. As he mentioned, funding hinges on how FYI can present a compelling business case. That’s why they’ve spent much time stress testing the deposit, metallurgy- using samples across the deposit. They’re heavily engaged in marketing activities. But no names have come out in public understandably so until a BFS is done and also when the product qualification is completed, a very crucial ingredient to this project moving forward.
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The other concern I have had was the significant upscale from pilot plant to the 8k tonne capacity. But fyi claims to have very experienced technical people doing all the tests using the pilot plant which is a pre-cursor to a commercial volume production
What makes FYI glide in here is the fact that the market has not been convinced yet as to FYI’s business model and strategy. But wasn’t adn in this same spot ($8m mcap) just 6 months ago? Things can change quickly here if we’d catch the tailwinds of change which our 3 peers have rode over in the last 12 months with adn being the latest beneficiary at 10 baggers in a space of 3 months June to August.
FYI Price at posting:
7.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
