Had a tough run this share but are we through the worst and about to hit better times? Well I thought I'd have a wee look so I prepared a forecast to get some idea of what the future holds. I used HRR's BFS dated 29/6/16 and updated it for product prices, exchange rate & financing struture. Here it is:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 0 Units 2019 2020 1 Assumptions: 2 Mine Life Years 10 3 Commercial Production Declared Date 1/1/2019 4 Production - Zn mmlbs 44 88 5 Market Price - ZN US$/lb 1.50 1.50 6 Production - Cu mmlbs 11 22 7 Market Price - Cu US$/lb 3.00 3.00 8 Production - Pb mmlbs 13 26 9 Market Price - Pb US$/lb 1.15 1.15 10 AUDUSD 0.78 0.78 11 C1 Cash Cost before BPC A$/lb Zn 1.50 1.50 12 Royalties % 4.0 4.0 13 CTR % 30 30 14 Revenue Tax Losses A$m 97 15 Development Capital A$m 156 16 Sustaining Capital A$m -10 -26 17 Results: 18 Revenue A$m 146 292 19 EBITDA A$m 70 144 20 PAT A$m 52 97 21 FCF (Free cash flow) A$m 53 95 22 Valuation: 23 EBITDA MULTIPLIER = 6 Times A$ per FDS 0.19 0.41 24 PAT MULTIPLIER - 11 Times A$ per FDS 0.25 0.49 25 FCFMULTIPLIER - 10 Times A$ per FDS 0.18 0.49 26 AVERAGE A$ per FDS 0.20 0.47
Hence based on the above my SP forecasts for HRR are:
1. 2019: HRR's SP = A$0.20
2. 2020: HRR's SP - A$0.47
The current HRR SP = A$0.074 so it looks like there is potential for a re-rating at some point in the future.
Please remember this is all my stuff and before you invest you need to DYOR.
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