Trying to take the emotion and the personalities out of the debate, ARL and HRR are at different stages in their corporate lives. The life cycle chart of a miner is a good place to reflect on their respective values and risks as investments.
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ARL had a great announcement this morning.
However, it's important top remember that it is at the stage HRR was when it merged with TriAusMin back in August 2014 (nearly 3 years ago) - the ARL rectangle on the chart above. There is much water to go under the bridge with exploration, resource definition, metallurgical testing, feasibility studies, eventual capital raising etc etc.
HRR is significantly derisked, having progressed through the orphan and institutional investment periods - the right hand rectangle on the chart above. It's future is now firmly in the hands of management in their execution of construction, mining and processing.
HRR is fully funded through construction, with relatively low debt.
Its main risks are metal prices and AUD vs USD, which could go either way, although current forecasts for both are favourable to enhancing HRR's position.
In addition, the Feasibility Study was based on a 'starter case', leaving scope for improved project economics.
Markf17's calculation of 11c NPV per HRR share (thanks for your input Mark) based on the starter case is 57% above the SPP price and 50% above last night's close.
On balance, there are arguments for both as investments, depending on your appetite for risk. Just need to be wary of the 'Speculators leave' stage for ARL.
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