Agreed Jigg... the AUD weakness will help, my post was just to highlight currency benefits are not as material if costs are also in USD. It's worth noting also that 48% of revenues comes from US. There's 17% in GBP however the AUD has not depreciated as significantly.
An example might highlight it better:
The below just assumes US revenues are in line with EBITDA margins for HSN (25-30%). When the AUD goes from $0.95 to $0.80 vs the USD, the incremental benefit to EBITDA is around $2.3m (or around 8% of forecast EBITDA). If the costs were all in AUD, the incremental benefit to EBITDA would be $8.5m. 8% is of course a benefit, but not the sole reason you would make an investment decision.
Column 1 Column 2 0 At $0.95 All figures are in AUD 1 Forecast HSN Revenue $95,000,000 2 US Exposure 48% 3 US Revenues $45,600,000 4 EBITDA Margin 27.50% 5 US Costs $33,060,000 6 Implied EBITDA in AUD $12,540,000 7 At $0.80 8 US Revenues $54,150,000 9 US Costs $39,258,750 10 Implied EBITDA in AUD $14,891,250 11 Uplift in EBITDA due to AUD weakness $2,351,250 12 As a proportion of FY15 EBITDA (assuming $30m) 7.83750%
Column 1 Column 2 0 EBITDA on USD revenues if costs were in AUD only $21,090,000 1 Uplift in EBITDA due to AUD weakness $8,550,000
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Agreed Jigg... the AUD weakness will help, my post was just to...
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