- DS may accelerate development - Expect to file for approval by year end - DS/BTA may market LANI themselves
The last point is really big, it would require a large capital investment from Biota however the profits may be larger than expected royalties from out-licencing. In a multi-billion dollar market and high profit margins it's certainly worth considering investment. Another potential opportunity would be for Biota to out-license the compound to Daiichi. In my view the best scenario for BTA would be to license to someone like GSK, next best to invest 50:50 with DS and reap the profits (requires capital raising) and then lastly to license to DS.
"Japanese drugmakers are accelerating efforts to develop and produce flu medications. "To combat swine flu, we are reviewing our strategy using the CS-8958 flu medication," said Kazunori Hirokawa, an executive at Daiichi Sankyo Co. (4568), at an earnings briefing on May 13. The company initially aimed to ready its production system for seasonal flu, but will rework the plan to cope with the new type as well. The CS-8958 medication is effective in treating the seasonal H1N1 strain influenza, the same as the swine flu. Clinical trials for the drug are in the final stage in Japan, and Daiichi Sankyo is expected to file for approval with the Health Ministry by year-end. The firm is now considering whether to carry out development and sales by itself overseas as well, or find business partners -- rather than selling development and manufacturing rights to foreign makers. If there is solid demand, the drugmaker might be able to earn more profit by expanding operations than selling the license, despite high development costs."
BTA Price at posting:
$1.24 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
