Guys, I have to disagree with your final figures on what a GTL plant would do for Central's SP.
I have conducted a VERY rough NPV analysis on GTL and it's potential based on the 300bn tonnes of coal reportedly discovered by the company as JORC exploration target.
I make a few assumptions in this model below:
- Base conversion of Coal to diesel is 1 tonne of coal equates to 2 42gallon barrels of diesel
- $120,000 per bbl produced in capacity is taken from the Sasol and Linc Energy Chinchilla average CAPEX costs
- Operating expenditure is calculated on an average of projects assessed
- PRRT as per " Australia's Petroleum Resource Rent Tax" guidelines available at: http://www.centralpetroleum.com.au/files/reports/quarterly-report-201103.pdf
- Tax as per Company Tax Rate 2011
- Mine life of 50 years taken as a feasible maximum. Less is fine, hence entire NPV discount model included so different prices can be seen and extrapolated
- My personal recommendation of farming out 60% to fund capex requirement and get the project in working order by 2014
I have included a maximum dillution of stock based on:
- A hypothetical capital raising on the TSX and in Australia creating 333,333,334 new shares
- Exercising of options expiring between end of 2013/Mar 2014: 297,317,191 new shares
- total assumed share capital as at 2014 and project launch: 1,612,949,366
This model is not 100% accurate... not by a long shot. But it will give you a more realistic idea what it means for CTP in MY opinion. I have done my best to get as close to what they would use in a feasibility study, but this is a very crude analysis. Again purely for your benefit to glean ideas and my personal insight and belief.
DYOR
CTP Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
