hugely oversold!, page-23

re: nab bounce Hi Andrew,

Sorry, I didn't know that, or could be excused for not knowing that, going by all the commentary on this Board and in the media.

Yesterday, I received my dividend advice and dthis morning checked and saw that the funds had been banked into the several accounts to which the payments go.

Overall, a goo dividend payment (fully franked) on a 6K holding which has been progressively built up over the last 10 years.

My point - the NAB business still makes $3.2-3.5B in profits and has ~1.55B shares on issue.

Now, in anyone's business, that's money making.

Today's problem has more to do with management and whether we should be all that trusting of the new CEO.

As for the FSA business, of course it was going to be attacked, but what people seem to be forgetting is this:
1)
the NAB has been saying no to customers (ie: will cut margins to retain customers, but must still meet internal benchmarks and make a profit on the transaction);
2)
riskier business has been closed out and those customers are being told to take their business elsewhere; and
3)
the other Banks (ANZ and CBA in particular) are cutting to cost or below in order to win over the business (but in most cases all that is happening is that the poorer quality, price sensitive customers are moving, and the well heeled customers are splitting their loans and taking advantage of the lower ANZ and CBA rates).

The much, much bigger surprise will occur later this year, or in February 2005 when each of the ANZ and CBA start announcing some real drops in their business momentum (that anyway is my prediction).

In due course, the Big 4 will become the smaller 3, and the NAB will have the pick of the bunch. This, however, will not likely occur before late 2005 or (more likely) early 2006, by which time 4-Pillars will be gone.