HUM AX: +70% to +85% upside from here?

I think HUM AX looks fascinating from here, and would love to hear any fundamental-based reasons why I'm wrong here. As my numbers below indicate (the only lingering Q is what the exact amount of cash will be left at the PF, but doesn't change things that much), I am getting to +70%to +85% upside based on the stub Commercial segment either re-rating in line with peers / rumoured stand-alone value / rumoured transaction value (both Cerberus and Affinity have been in the AFR reportedly sniffing around). That FY22e CNPAT number of $32m is potentially conservative too in the context of their explosive growth here.