HUM Daily Price Movement/ Valuations, page-218

I am down 23% on this stock (my 5th largest position) ... if I did already own it, I would probably see it as a great opportunity but am currently a bit gun shy - have already averaged down.

Not sure whether dividends are a good idea - while this may give it some short term juice, a business should not be run for share price but for long term profitability ... Having said that, I prefer green to red on my spreadsheets.

I always saw this as a sensible play into BNPL, but with a potential catalyst - travel business / COVID re-opening. They have a few other aspects to their business which show good value and opportunity, e.g. commercial leasing.

The market cap of $410m is nuts in the context of the cash balance and business level, but being out of the ASX 300, without institutional support and having misled investors in the past (bad guidance), they are out in the wilderness and nobody of note is givng them the benefit of the doubt. They actually need to prove/do before people will look at them again. People have seen growth charts before - it is just that many do not seem to believe them.

I think the CEO is doing a great job in rationalising the brands, systems, the marketing, etc. She has the misfortune of inheriting a business that was not trusted by the investing community.

When/if this re rates, it will be epic. The annoying thing for me is knowing that I could have bought it cheaper. One of my bggest holdings started falling during COVID - from ~$2.5 to ~80c in weeks. I kept buying but lost my nerve at around 90c. Those last buys have been some of my best investments to date (current price is $3+). On the other hand I had another company that just kept falling and I got burned because they lost one of their biggest customers. With HUMM, they do not have any huge customers so I do not think they can get a huge negative shock (but who knows) ... I think it is people with shorter time horizons exiting and looking for faster gains (can not blame them).

This is a guess, but I think this stock is being swung around by retail sentiment rather than any fundamentals.