Humm Valuation - What is Sensible

I have tried this afternoon to do a back of the envelope valuation for Humm based on H1 FY'23 financials.

H1 FY'23 NPAT adjusted for one off items $24.7m
Therefore full year FY'23 NPAT $49.4m

And remember that FY'23 is a transition year with rising interest rates and lots and lots of new volume where costs are incurred prior to the revenue being recorded in subsequent years as the loans mature.

And what is the benchmark?

I have taken 6 year averages from FY'13 to FY'18 which are the pre BNPL and pre Covid years.

Average annual Revenue $401.1m
Average annual NPAT   $83.0m

Average P/E ratio 11.4x   (note:  highest SP achieved was $4.99 at an implied P/E raio of 17.9x)

Therefore a reasonable market cap of 11.4x $49.4m is an equivalent MC of $563.2m

And a corresponding share price of $1.13/share

Any comments welcome.

However I would say there is a big prize for getting Humm to a more realistic Market Cap.