humour-sell accumulate below $1.45

Last Update - 27/05/2003

Huntleys Recommendation: Jubilee Mines NL ( JBM )
Recommendation: Sell. Accumulate Below A$1.45 per Share

JBM’s share price has made numerous recent attempts at cracking the A$2 level and to date has failed. Consensus earnings forecasts of 40.2cps and 36.4cps for FY03 and FY04, place the company on attractive PEs of 4.7 and 5.2 respectively. In addition, the forecast dividend of 20cps for a +10% yield is compelling. However, Cosmos reserves are sufficient for 4-5 years of mine life. We derive an NPV valuation of just under A$1.45 per share for JBM. Exploration success could increase our valuation, however there is risk associated with the commissioning of the underground and exchange rate risk. We retain our

SELL recommendation. Accumulate below A$1.45.

Jbm price at the time ~$1.90
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Last Update - 18/07/2003

Huntleys Recommendation: Jubilee Mines NL ( JBM )
Recommendation: Sell: JBM Overvalued on What is Known

JBM is flush with cash and has hinted at a strong final dividend which will be partially franked for the first time. In addition, high grades albeit at narrow widths in exploration drilling has fired the market. It could be that JBM will jag another discovery ala Cosmos which would propel the company to the next level. However, we will be basing our recommendation largely on what is know to date. On this basis, we feel that the share price has run too far and will retain our SELL recommendation. We have however lifted our accumulate trigger price from $1.45ps to $1.70ps due to positive reconciliations with respect to Cosmos Deeps ore grades to date.

Recommendation: Sell: JBM Overvalued on What is Known

JBM price at the time ~$2.50
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Last Update - 20/07/2004

Recommendation: Sell
In spite of the obvious exploration potential, we will once again be downgrading our recommendation on JBM from Speculative Hold/Neutral to “Sell”. The pull back in share price, which prompted a softening in our negative stance, has reversed and the stock is now at a 40% premium to our NPV based on a long-term nickel price of US$5.00/lb. On this basis, the price suggests that the market is valuing JBM’s exploration acreage, including the Anomaly 1 resource, at approximately A$200m. While we like the story and agree the acreage is highly prospective, the value is too rich for our taste. Our stance is no reflection on the quality of the existing operations or blue sky, but rather a comment on the share price relative to our valuation, the depletion of mineable reserves and the harsh realities of exploration.

Recommendation: Sell

JBM price at the time ~$4.25



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Ok no more posts today, I promise!!

maybe tonight :)