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huntleys mention again, page-15

  1. 7,486 Posts.
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    re: chart for cuzo MH has been targetting 4 mill lbs pa (Ranger 6, LH 2.6-4?) but might see lower start to ease in the U reality. Wouldnt take long to reach that figure after start IMO tho. Shared infrastructure and everything is within stone's throw, so opex depends on grades. Capex money in hand. If average feed grade is around 2 lbs / t (Ranger 1.8, PDN 1.3) reckon opex prob no more than AUD 20 / tonne at a GUESS ??? Hots? Yellowcake is relatively easy to bake.

    At current spot AUD 62, say initial 2 mill lb pa gives prob around 80 mill bucks pa EBITDA.

    At AUD 100 / lb say next year, that would double.

    At 4 mill lb pa and AUD 100 / lb ...... would give about 3 bucks a share EBITDA.

    Some suggest USD 100 / lb in a year or two (Field), others USD 500 / lb by end decade (Dynes) ....... happy to leave those kinda numbers on the shelf for now.

    Course above is typical of a 50 mill lbs / 12+ year minelife project. But Zeus willing, the Jungle is likely to yield multiples of that u would think.

    Anyway ERA is around 3 bill market cap and PDN about an inflated 2 bill market cap. At last count we are around 460 mill. But ERA and PDN DONT have a mega base metals resource unfolding and about to be fully paid for either.

    IMO we aint even at fair value for base metal oxides starter project alone yet and thats about one-tenth the size of the base metal sulphides the Chinese want to pay all the capex for half share thereof. We've been over this so many times.

    Any predator will try and suicide bomb it as u say. But they may run into Olympian spears also waiting on the sidelines for any firesales. The current stalemate stems from likely fact everyone is still looking for stock to BUY hoping for market weakness to assist .... but there aint much loose stock left at these levels unless some wanna play chess.

    U can forget trying to trade this IMO ........ as many in here can ruefully attest to. Its a matter of when u wanna hop off the Ark and wave as it sails by. But as with everything else, it is part of your portfolio which needs to be seriously considered in light of likely market uncertainties ahead. U gotta have a strategy.

    IMBOOC

 
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