IMHO
1) Ox will not undertake a buyback, A company pushing a growth story will not do this. this strategy is better for big mature companies. If Ox did this it would send the wrong signal. I would say buyback is extremely unlikely even at these levels. Will be seen as defeatist and will make matters worse.. I know they have lots of cash but this cash is actually needed in their existing operations.
2) M&A Ox clearly has cash and can buy smaller companies but its stock is in the gutter so bigger deals are out of the question for now, so dont expect a company transforming acquiistion in the short term. Smaller acquisitions or indeed any acquistions or sudden moves unlikely with nervous board esp after todays meeting.
3) Target yes possibly - big board seems to be increasingly rudderless and it has some decent assets.. Problem is obvious predators like Tek Xstrata also not travelling that well in difficult markets.
4) Is it undervalued? Yes certainly appears to be but could take some time for this to come through
I believe this will tread water prob make its way back up to 2.50 - 275 if conditions for resources companies improve in the short term
This board and management will just stick to their knitting and focus on the integration and their core assets and will not make any sudden moves.
Prominent Hill looking good and more clarity on this should help the price
Conclusion is little downside here unless there is something nasty lurking but it could take a while to work its way back to a respectable value.
Conditions for anything other then the majors in the resources world are challenging at the moment. But situation can change quickly . I do think it is a bargain and I am loading up but this is likely one for the patient..
OXR
oxiana limited
