hybrid debt/equity swap , page-77

Good Evening Selmax,

I understand that the global market is still dragging south, however I feel that our government and the RBA has acted alot faster than other countries, i.e. UK/US by increasing first home owners grant and by heavily reducing the cash rate. This will see our property prices head south, however not even close to what has been seen elsewere.

I have no doubt that we will head into a recession however I feel that ours will be quite shallow for ours and I think what will put us in that position is the rising jobless rate, which will be driven by organisations putting a freeze on employment, and also by cutting staff numbers..

First signs of recovery in property market
11/7/2008

Mortgage brokers are reporting that demand and enquiries are increasing, even before the full effect of the October first-home buyers’ grant increase, and Tuesday’s 75-point drop in the cash rate to 5.25 per cent. Australian Finance Group, the largest broker (or aggregator of mortgage brokers) yesterday reported its October sales data. These are the strongest business volumes since November 2007.

First-home buyers are driving the sales, increasing two percentage points to 16.4 per cent in October, increasing each month for the last four, since the June trough of 10.6 per cent. Refinancing increased in October to 40.9 per cent of loans from 39.1 per in September, at the expense of property investors, which fell from 31.4 per cent to 29.9 per cent. Fixed lending volume continued to fall in October, comprising just 4.5 per cent of mortgages, after peaking above 20 per cent for all seven months to March 2008. Standard variable increased to 51.6 per cent, with basic variable 21.2 per cent, equity 14.6 per cent and intro 8.1 per cent.

The AFG figures are well supported by another market participant, with Jennifer Nielsen, Loan Market & X Inc Finance chief executive officer, saying leads for the two groups were 30 per cent higher in October compared to September and August, with the increase over July eight per cent. “Four out of five enquiry calls in October to the call centre were first-home buyers, and it was down as low as 18 per cent at the beginning of the year. The balance is an increasing number of borrowers trying to get out of fixed rates. “Leads for the REA Home Loans brand in October were 30 per cent higher than September, twelve per cent up on August and three per cent higher than July.”

Nielsen adds the numbers of returning expats are also increasing, generally looking for loans from $800,000 to the several millions. “There has also been a marked increase in the number of refinances falling over due to valuations coming in lower, often below what properties would realistically sell for.”

Source: The Sheet

Another -

Signs of life in Sydney property market
11/3/2008

The Sydney residential property market showed signs of improvement for sellers on the weekend, with 43 per cent of 363 properties put up for auction selling on the day for a total value of $99 million. That is an improvement on the previous weekend, when 120 properties sold for $73 million according to revised figures, but still wel down on the same weekend last year when 249 properties sold for $221 million. In Melbourne, where the spring racing carnival is affecting auction results, just 29 properties were sold for $8.8 million, well down on last year’s results when 126 properties sold at auction for $56 million on the first Saturday in November. In Adelaide, ten properties sold at auction for a total value of $4 million, down on last week and well down on the same weekend’s figures from last year when 52 properties sold for $25 million. Brisbane’s results are also lacklustre with eight properties selling for a total value of $2.4 million.

Source: Australian Property Monitors