Hi Pints Transitions to new technology particularly in cars (for most people the next expensive buy after the home) is a complex/ expensive process until the transition gathers pace and manufacturing adapts.
R&D: Hybrid/EV R&D is hugely expensive because its a revolutionary change; not a slow/incremental one hence the dilemma for manufacturers apportioning/amortising costs over lower volumes initially. Future loss of revenue from spare parts/service items is also an ongoing issue.
Economy of scale/price positioning : IMO traditional low volume producers such as Volvo etc will, over time have profit issues unless they become car assemblers rather than car manufacturers per se by using others' powertrains etc.The major Chinese EV brands are excelling in "economy of scale" and IMO they will devour the low volume producers.
Culture change ...ICE to EV....Overcomming buyer resistance. For many of us , to change from Petrol or Diesel ICEs is a culture shock but the computerisation of modern Petrol and Diesel ICEs leaves us helpless when something goes pear shaped and like the EV, its usually the tow truck (hence the popularity of free Motoring Club membership with your new car purchase whether that be an ICE or an EV
Government Carrot/Stick tactics to encourage transition to Zero Exhaust Emission Vehicles:
IMO this is not economically sustainable because Governments are foregoing fuel excise+GST , at present about $0.52/litre + returning most of the GST on the new car purchase in the form of subsidies + lower rego fees all of which were previously used to build/maintain transport infrastructure . The inequitable thing about these EV subsidies/concessions is that the middle class and corporations are benefitting with the working class who can't afford a new EV making up the tax shortfalls.I guess the equitable solution is to tax all cars per km/ton but at present that politically would likely go down like a lead balloon
Auto Repair & maintenance/parts ( as a car sales person would say "the after market":
At present Brand Dealerships seem to have the lions share of this market; the specialist Taxi in-house workshops specialising in Hybrids seem the exception. IMO this will be the case for at least a decade until the independents become skilled & tooled up. In the interim those independents relying solely on ICE R & M will likely experience a drop in business
The "B" word....(Batteries) As with the manufacturing of EVs/Hybrids , China is the leader on traction battery manufacture simply because of investment in manufacturing automation and economy of scale.This has about halved the traction battery prices whether NMH (Hybrids) or Lithium (Plug-ins) over the past 10 years and that trend is continuing. Add to that improved battery quality, improved computer management including cooling and traction battery life is out to at least 15 yrs ; 2 years longer than the average life expectancy of a car in Aus. Chinese Auto manufacturers such as BYD are developing more durable, lighter and cheaper traction batteries, so the trend is downwards in pricing and upwards in longevity.
(303products.com.au)
This relates more to the useful economic life where cost of ownership like fuel consumption R&M etc feature highly. Then of course write-offs due to accidents reduce the national fleet life expectancy too.
