Article in The Australian this morning (with photo of Jamie Lee Curtis with her Honda FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicle at a hydrogen filling station in West Los Angeles):

Japan’s big bet on hydrogen could revolutionize the energy market

Japanbuilt the world’s third-largest economy on an industrial base powered byimported oil, gas and coal.

Now,it is planning to shift a big chunk of that power to hydrogen, in one of theworld’s biggest bets on an energy source long dismissed as too costly andinefficient to be realistic.

Thechange is a vital piece of the country’s plan to eliminate carbon emissions in30 years. If it succeeds, it could also lay the groundwork for a global supplychain that would finally let hydrogen come into its own as an energy source andfurther sideline oil and coal -- similar to the way the country pioneeredliquefied natural gas in the 1970s, some experts say.

Hydrogenhas been hyped before, and there are still big economic and technicalchallenges to overcome. Japan’s approach is likely to be a gradual process ofmoving away from fossil fuels over many years, so it won’t cut carbon emissionsquickly at first. Nor will it resolve its dependence on foreign energy. Thecountry is planning to use hydrogen produced largely from imported fossil fuelsinitially.

Butlike many countries, Japan is realizing it can’t achieve its goal of zeroemissions by 2050 with renewable sources like solar and wind alone. Hydrogenemits water vapor when used, rather than greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide.It can be used to replace fossil fuels in industries where renewables don’twork as well.

TheJapanese government more than doubled its hydrogen-relatedresearch-and-development budget to nearly $300 million in the two years to2019, a figure that doesn’t include the millions invested by private companies.

InDecember, Japan published a preliminary road map that called for hydrogen andrelated fuels to supply 10% of the power for electricity generation -- fromvirtually zero now -- as well as a significant portion of the energy for otheruses like shipping or steel manufacture by 2050. The government is honing afinal energy plan now, which could contain official targets for hydrogendevelopment and an estimate of how much it will cost.

Eventually,the government is expected to provide subsidies, as well as disincentives forcarbon-emitting technologies. Japan’s industrial powerhouses are buildingships, gas terminals and other infrastructure to make hydrogen a big part ofeveryday life.

Japan’sbiggest power company, JERA Co., is planning to reduce carbon emissions bymixing the hydrogen compound ammonia into its coal-fired plants, and in Maysigned a memorandum of understanding with one of the world’s biggest ammoniamanufacturers to develop supply.

Thecountry’s conglomerates are seeking out places to source ammonia and hydrogen.Shipping companies like Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha are designing boats thatrun on those fuels.

Theworld’s first liquefied hydrogen carrier -- a 380-foot vessel bearing theletters “LH2” in blue and black -- sits at the port of Kobe in southwest Japan,preparing for its trial run to Australia, around 5,600 miles away.

“Thereal game-changer here is that if there is a breakthrough in Japan and theentire value chain is figured out to service the Japanese market, I think therewill be rapid adoption” of hydrogen globally, says David Crane, the formerchief executive of U.S. power producer NRG Energy Inc., who sits on the boardof JERA.

Hydrogenhas key advantages. One is that it can be used in modified versions of existingpower plants and other machinery designed to run on coal, gas or oil. That willhelp countries avoid scrapping billions of dollars of legacy assets as theytransition to a new-energy future.

Itcan also be stored and used in fuel cells, which pack more power into the sameamount of space than electric batteries. That makes hydrogen better suited forairplanes or ships that have to carry energy supplies long distances.

Anotheradvantage is that hydrogen is a technology in which Japan can take the lead andreduce reliance on China, which is emerging as a major alternative energy powerand the world’s biggest supplier of solar panels and electric batteries.

With80% of solar panels now coming from China, “we have some concern” about futureenergy security, says Masakazu Toyoda, chairman of the Institute of EnergyEconomics, Japan, who also sits on a committee advising the government onenergy strategy.

TheInternational Energy Agency said in May that hydrogen would be needed, alongwith solar and wind energy, if the world is to reach net-zero carbon emissionsby 2050. Its road map for the most “technically feasible” way of getting therepredicted hydrogen and related fuels would make up 13% of the total energy mixthat year, while investment could exceed $470 billion annually.

Inthe U.S., some states and companies are investing in hydrogen projects likefuel stations, although the efforts are still sporadic.

TheEuropean Union last year rolled out its own hydrogen strategy and estimatedinvestment in the industry could reach hundreds of billions of dollars by 2050.Several European oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell PLC and BP PLC, arebacking new hydrogen projects. Airbus this year unveiled plans for threehydrogen-fueled airplanes.

Elsewherein Asia, a consortium of South Korean conglomerates including Hyundai in Marchannounced $38 billion in hydrogen-related investment by 2030. China plans tohave hundreds of hydrogen buses ready for the Beijing Winter Olympics in early2022.

Akey problem is that hydrogen isn’t found by itself in nature, which means itmust be extracted from compounds such as water or fossil fuels. That takesenergy. More energy goes into producing pure hydrogen than comes out when thathydrogen is consumed.

Themost common ways of making hydrogen, by extracting it from natural gas or coal,also produce a lot of carbon dioxide. The long-term goal is to make hydrogenthe “green” way, using electricity from renewable-energy sources, but for nowthat is pricier.

Storingand carrying hydrogen is tough, too. The gas is so light and takes up so muchspace at normal temperatures that it has to be compressed or liquefied to betransported efficiently. Hydrogen doesn’t turn into liquid until it is cooledto minus 253 degrees Celsius, just 20 degrees warmer than absolute zero.

Japan’splan could be one of the world’s most consequential because of its bold idea ofusing ammonia. Ammonia, a compound of nitrogen and hydrogen that also emits nocarbon dioxide, solves some of hydrogen’s problems. It is more expensive tomake, but much easier to transport and store -- and thus trade -- than purehydrogen. And it is already produced in large quantities world-wide, mostly forfertilizer.

Criticssay hydrogen and related fuels aren’t worth the effort. Generating electricityfrom pure hydrogen in Japan would currently cost around eight times as much asfrom natural gas or solar and nine times more than coal, according to someestimates.

Greenpeacehas panned Japan’s ammonia power-generation plans. It concluded in a Marchanalysis that the idea was “expensive greenwash,” because it will likely stillinvolve some greenhouse gas emissions and cost more than producing power withrenewable energy.

Volkswagenestimates hydrogen-powered electric vehicles use as much as three times moreenergy than battery-powered ones. Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has calledhydrogen fuel cells for cars stupid.

ButJapan’s circumstances mean it has limited options. It imports almost 90% of theenergy it uses, and has limited room to build out solar or wind arrays. Japanshut down most of its nuclear plants after a 2011 tsunami caused meltdowns atone in Fukushima; the public remains largely opposed to nuclear power.

Thezero-carbon road map that Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industryunveiled in December called for importing millions of tons of ammonia.

“Itis a huge endeavor,” says Ryo Minami, director general of METI’s oil, gas andmineral resources department, which is leading its ammonia strategy. “Japan isembarking on something that’s never been done anywhere in the world.” AlthoughJapan has been plugging hydrogen since the 1970s, commercialization was slow.Attitudes started changing a few years ago, after a government-sponsoredresearch project led by Shigeru Muraki, a former vice chairman at Tokyo Gas Co.Mr. Muraki proposed starting with ammonia until technologies using purehydrogen matured.

Mr.Muraki’s group found it could be burned in existing coal- and gas-poweredthermal plants, which currently produce three-quarters of Japan’s electricity.Although the combustion emits nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas, Japaneseengineers have worked to get the emissions down and say the rest can befiltered out so it doesn’t get released.

Japaneseutilities could first secure ammonia made from fossil fuels and find ways tocapture or offset the carbon dioxide emitted during that process, Mr. Murakireasoned. They could switch to “green” ammonia as demand grows and prices comedown.

Mr.Muraki talked up the idea to government officials, like the economy ministry’sMr. Minami. The problem was that Japan needed economies of scale to bring downhydrogen or ammonia prices, and no big consumer had emerged.

Thatis where JERA came in. The power producer was formed after the Fukushimanuclear plant disaster left its operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co., in badfinancial straits. In 2019, Tepco and another major utility transferred theirthermal power plants to JERA, leaving it with facilities that supplied around athird of Japan’s electricity.

JERAcalculated that switching Japan’s power to entirely renewable energy would meanrebuilding the country’s electric grid, a costly and time-consuming process,says Hisahide Okuda, head of JERA’s strategy department. But the existing gridcould support enough renewable power to meet half the country’s demand.