https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/market-outlook/eye-on-t...

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/market-outlook/eye-on-the-market-electravision
By Michael Cembalest | Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management

A few interesting snippets in this so thought it worth a share.

• But there have also been a lot of cancelled projects due to the realization that per unit of energy, hydrogen for road transport or winter heating is much less efficient than directly electrified alternatives. While developers lined up at the public trough for $350 billion in global hydrogen subsidies in 202334 (tax credits, grants and R&D funding), the energy math usually argues against it other than for green hydrogen to replace fossil fuel-derived hydrogen currently used in ammonia/fertilizer, in oil refining and in direct reduction of iron ore to iron metal.
• "The EU established a 1.2% blending requirement for synthetic aviation fuel sourced from green hydrogen by 2030 and 35% (!!) by 2050. Synthetic fuel producers note that airlines are reluctant to pay a green premium, and are struggling to secure offtake agreements with airlines"
• BCG raised its expected minimum green hydrogen price target for 2030 from 3 euros/kg to 5 euros/kg.
• Maersk’s APM Terminals division found that hydrogen costs for container handling equipment (tractors, carriers and stackers) are 25%-60% higher than battery powered equipment due to greater efficiency losses, higher fuel costs and greater equipment complexity; and concluded that these cost gaps will persist.
• Hydrogen truck makers Hyzon and Nikola both face delisting by Nasdaq for consistently trading below $1
• Green hydrogen’s arguably best new use case, maritime shipping, faces huge obstacles. When compressed and chilled to 20⁰C above absolute zero (which would consume 33% of the energy in hydrogen), hydrogen’s energy density by volume is still 4x less than maritime fuel; if converted into ammonia fuel, the energy conversions are expensive; there are safety concerns if used in confined ship engine rooms 45; and any hydrogen leakage could have negative consequences for the ozone since global warming impacts of H2 are 12x higher than CO246 . The cost challenge for shipping: even after adjusting for hydrogen’s higher energy density by mass compared to diesel, green hydrogen could still cost 5x-6x more than maritime fuel.

And most importantly ... watch this space! When the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan says this, you cant help but get a bit excited:

• Next year we will look at the question of naturally occurring “white” or “gold” hydrogen deposits. By then, the 50+ companies which have begun to look for them will have presumably either confirmed its abundance or not. The USGS believes that there might be some in the Atlantic coastal plain, the central US, parts of the Great Plains and the Upper Midwest. The USGS has committed to publishing its global resource potential models and a preliminary map of the areas that are most likely to contain geologic hydrogen resources later this year."