RE Option 1: The potential royalty streams are two fold. 1)the...

RE Option 1:

The potential royalty streams are two fold. 1)the machines because of the sensor and 2)the cartridges aka consumables.

FACTs: The current market dominant POC TnI device is $14,000. (abbott)
The consumables for a standard TnI test are $25 a pop. (abbott)
estimated that there are 100,000 hospitals in the world
(Note: I'm not including GP practices and medical centres- a huge market)

ASSUMPTIONS: a 10% market capture (This has also been projected by philips)
a 5% royalty on the sensor/machine
and a 10c royalty per cartridge.(Note: this is a 0.4% royalty only. Could be anywhere from .1% to 10% ($2.5) . . my experience is- ultra low royalties for consumables (but happy to hear other opinions)


SO:
100,000 (hospitals)* 10%(market capture) * (14000* %5) = 7million

Plus

Consumables
incidence of chest pain world wide is 2.5% which means that:
7billion * 2.5% * 10c = $17.5million
BUT before you get excited- our consumables will only work with the POC1 of which will only sell 10000 in the first yr
(in our hypothetical senario)
Therefore
10,000 * 2perday (CONSERVATIVE) * 365 * .10 = $730,000

So hypothetically our royalty stream for the 12months from POC1 roll-out will be 7.73million
OR
0.85 cents per share. which is a 7.7% return on todays 11c share.
Gives an indicative price of approx 22c per share... At first glance this doesnt appear amazing BUT
I feel like I haver used conservative figures (eg 2cartridgesper machine per day and 10c royalty and hospitals only)
and more importantly this is just from the TnI arm of ANTEO. not to mention- pathology consumables, infectious diseases, batteries, laser

ps:If you really wanna smile put a royalty of $2.5 (10%) into the above equation