Excellent post GDN, appreciate the work that goes into it !
Agree, there is upside from 4.7c without PNG.
I think GS were using USD60-70brl POO in their calcs which was probably the consensus forecast when that report was done
The recent UBS report posted by TheFatz has lower valuations and I guess that's because they assume POO around USD50-55 going fwd, (although its not included in TheFatz's post).
UBS state "Our val'n (7cps, my insert) is based on DCF of Maari & Beibu Gulf + risked value for PNG, Beibu upside."
They state risked value of 1cps for PNG upside (43cps unrisked)
I assume risked value for BGP2 upside is also ~1cps
Therefore, the base case valuation would be 5cps
HZN Valuation - Independant Valuation, page-2
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