Wanabee and KKW, I wish I had the resolve in the past to drop in and out of this stock on the waves of highs and lows. After watching the waves for the last 5 or 6 years I have become more of an expert in predicting them with FAR, but never had the gum nuts or inclination to buy in and out like that for fear of missing out or making a mistake.. I respect that investors like yourself can do it.
FAR for me has been an opportunity missed due to the oil crash but not an opportunity lost. Would I have done better selling and coming back in during the 8cent doldrums, who knows, but I did sell half my FAR stake through frustration, and the other stocks performed no better, well to be honest, they performed worse.
It's so easy to see in hindsight, isn't it?
I remember 2 years ago when WLP was buying in and thinking they were going to take FAR as well at any time. And I hung in there for it and it didn't happen. Then a year ago I thought DOC was imminent, but it wasn't. Same with PE.... If I did have hindsight I would have sold in and out on all of the ups and downs that shook out what some would call weak hands (I don't). There is no such thing as week hands, we are all coming at this from different circumstances.
Anywho .... What I do love about FAR, is the way the waves are line up. Management and the cappers have been very careful and patient, bringing things through the oil price crash masterfully. Remember we called it the headwinds. Well IMHO opinion the headwinds have turned and FAR is sailing with the wind and waves at its back. It's a good analogy because when you're heading up to wind progress is slow, the sails are in tight and the keel is at full stretch as you work hard using the clever aerodynamic power of the sail to claw your way forward. It doesn't take patience to work into the wind, it takes grit and brawn. Running downwind is a completely different experience. More boats are lost in the southern ocean when running than when tacking. The reason is that the boat can surf too fast down a wave with the wind behind it and broach. Broaching end over end is much more dangerous than being flattened with the wind off your nose and sails in tight.
So here is my point. FAR has been running downwind for a while now, at least 2 years, as the oil price has firmed up and they have been proving up SNE, broaching PE, and extended acreage.. I think management is very wise to play the following wind and waves very carefully and not run ahead and broach the boat. They look to be taking one wave at a time with a steady course. If they get to the bottom of a wave and stick the nose under the first deal that comes along, or push PE too hard, or rattle the JV too hard, or play the governments too hard they could broach the whole thing and have damage to control.
Better to ease out the sails, pop the spinnaker, set a couple of sea anchors and catch the waves at the right speed and cruise into the end game with style. IMHO.
The opportunity is huge!
The other consideration for me is that the capper and accumulator are not planning on doing so forever, sooner or later they are going to want to let it run and realize their profit. It's a finite game they play. Oil is an onsell game. It's always for sale! the SNE project is about to commercialize, but would FAR choose to sell out just with just SNE up now, or would they be better to let a few more waves go under the transom like PE, Samo and more...... its very exciting and the tension in the SP is getting bigger every day...
Time to sit back and let the following wind and sea carry us forward. All the hard work has been done, its just careful and patient management required now.
Giddy up FAR
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