Every time you post I'll just reminding everyone of your delusions and inaccuracies
'
SWC - shorters covering
Minimal movement occurring here. There were 22.195M shorts o/s at 26/5, down from 23.5M at 28/2 when the H17 results were announced. In the very near to 3 months since then, the shorts have dropped by ~1.3M. At other key points in time, of recent making, the shorts have been --> 22.332M down @17/3 (so, down 137K since then) and 22.365M @31/3 (so, down 170K since then). The shorts are indeed running - not.
SWC - SGHs upcoming $1billion dollars lawsuit of Watchstone
This is still a wait and see. There is a world of difference between filing a claim (not yet filed), proving and being awarded a claim, and then collecting against the claim. For whatever argument or benefit that the $1B claiming amount brings, the reality is more likely, a contested passage of time exceeding 2-3 years, an ultimate amount (if, for example, awarded) that is part way collected (akin to what all the counter arguments have been to the MB claim, being in the main, that the most that might be paid out is whatever the coverage limit of the prevailing D&O policy is).
SWC - Positive barrister's opinion on 50million Pound escrow
This has been debunked including by reference to what Watchstone itself advised the market some time ago. The difference is that it remains in SGH's interests to keep the illusion of this alive as opposed to advising on the reality.
SWC - NIHL positions advertised in the UK (our secret weapon)
Perhaps they are, but far more likely is that this is a by-product of churn, with people leaving and being replaced. if not, then all of the so called OPEX improvements will suddenly do a u-turn as the bloated beat once again starts gorging its way through its available cash resources.
SWC - continued progress towards regaining financial performance
No 15% is going to happen here anytime soon, if indeed, at all. This has been demonstrated time and time again. The best that they might ever get back to is circa the high 7's with perhaps an overall cost base stabilising at around the 700 - 750 mark. But not otherwise.
SWC - multiple CAs on the go such as VW and Spotless
Yes, they are, but the reality is that these are also not a sure thing, in much the same way as it is repeatedly argued that the MB CA is not a sure thing. You can't have it both ways. That is, CAs run by SGH are sure things, but those which are not run by them are all doomed to failure. That's neither the reality nor the likelihood. As it is though, for the past 2+ years, project litigation (ie; CAs) have been SGH's greatest weakest link according to their financials, their annual /semi-annual presentations and their market calls. Nothing much here has changed in this regard.
SWC - upbeat ASX announcements.
There have been no upbeat ASX announcements being expressing a wish, a pray, a hope, or a grovelling request, all hoping that the future will be better than the past. The caveat however in each instance has been and remains - the current and future ongoing viability of the business is dependent upon the continued support of the financiers. This was most recently repeated at 28/12/16, 28/2/17, 17/3/17 and 31/3/17 and 5/5/17 (drawing back to and amplifying upon the comments of the earlier 31`/3/17 announcement). Upbeat is when you are making profits, have +ve cash happening in real terms, not on some scripted normalised basis, have net cash in the bank, have no adverse claims against them, etc, not when there is no cash, you are capitalising interest, another $450M+ in SFA borrowings have just gone current, there are multiple CAs out there or emerging on the horizon, you are CF -ve and reliant on eve rmore funds from new, replacement lenders, and you have failed to file your defence in the CA claim, NWS the original 27/4 deadline, later extended to 26/5, and still not yet there, at 2/6.
SWC - Still hurdles ahead but also plenty of opportunities
==> Your view, not mine. The opportunities will not be there until the hurdles have all been scaled and the race has been done and won. Presently, SGH are well away from any of this happening.
What therefore happens tomorrow will be determined by the new, replacement lenders who are the ones in effective, real control and not by management, the shareholders or the board. The next heavy bridges for SGH to cross are the YE close, the 1/8 initial $20M SFA capital repayment and the Aug17 financial reporting. That's in a financial sense. Ahead of any of them however are a myriad of operational, strategic, technical, legal and risk hurdles for them to cross.
Lots of thrashing about therefore still happening but not much swimming and certainly, very little winning. First, get the house properly in order and the approaches secured, then you can start considering the opportunities arising, but doubtful otherwise.'
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