i am not impressed

After watching the webcast and reading feedback I have come to the following fundamental position on PRR.

Building on kbear1's popular post (~28 ticks) stating that 2010 figures for the remission group in the major markets was around 33,000 persons; 10% penetration rate is 3,300 per year; price point for Cvac of $70,000 and you're looking at revenue of roughly $230,000,000 per annum annum - not sure I agree with these figures but I will run with them in the remainder of this post.

Now putting a profit margin of say 15% that is a profit of 34.5 million pending success of the product in ~2015 each year. A PER of 10 and there is a successful market cap of 345 million less than triple where it is now.

With 3 years still to go before productisation, and a cash burn rate of ~7 million+ and increasing per quarter there will need to be another ~60+ million before productisation meaning that a real profit will not be seen for at least 3 years post productisation - this is calculated with current cash (35 million) plus needed cash (~60 million) / 3 years profit at 34.5 million which does not take into account all of the cash already burnt in the past and possible missed timelines that typically occurs.

To that end, there will be no profit before 2018+ pending complete success of the speculative product with full sales and margins as stated above.

That is why I believe the share price is where it is currently and as to why I feel it was even beyond the full success of the product with sales into 2020 at a share price of 40 cents.