I wouldn't worry too much about broker reports from that long ago. I would probably say it was over valued at $6 or $8 as well. There were a few sell reports around the 19th December, but I think some brokers were just reacting to the share price change and removing their prior buy or hold recommendations.
I agree that book value is very hard to determine for a website - it would be probably based off earnings anyway. Lower book value for this sort of business probably means fewer buildings and staff numbers.
I agree there is a lot of uncertainty with future earnings vs. costs. But I don't think Commsec's predicted 19% EPS growth is priced in at all. Wotif has had some good years and some bad years, but from these levels I think the potential outweighs the risk. They have practically no debt, a history of very little or no share dilution and a solid dividend that will get more attention around these levels. This could potentially fuel a short term bounce this quarter.
They really just need to improve their growth. It's hard being so reliant on the Australian market. This is their biggest weakness, but if they can make some head-way into the lucrative Asian markets or launch a new product to get the market excited again this could turn around very quickly.
WTF Price at posting:
$2.67 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held