This is precisely why I don't factor Puntland (onshore anyway)...

This is precisely why I don't factor Puntland (onshore anyway) into the equation when making calculations about current value. AOI have been doing this kind of thing for 5 years.

As it's going to be June before the takeover, I would doubt if we'll get mobilisation before then. If you think about it, AOI have got the LEO 15% of Puntland for just $10m (as LEO have a cash pile of $30m and the total deal is worth $40m). Will be quite difficult to get LEO shareholders to vote in favour of a takeover if mobilisation has taken place to drill a billion barrel target in July, at least on the current proposed terms.

So I would have thought June mobilisation at the best case. There is, of course, a quite reasonable chance they'll be more messing around by AOI after this. They'll own a 50% working interest upon conclusion of the deal, and a 50% paying interest. They're probably going to want to farm down their stake (10-20% given away in exchange for 20-30% of the drilling costs, similar to the RMP deal I suspect). AOI are a very financially prudent company (well worth an investment IMO, though I don't currently own any) and won't bear a large percentage of drilling costs in an underexplored basin. Finding a farm in partner could take more time...I'm sure you get the picture.

They're allowed to mess us around because the Puntland government keep giving them extensions. Sure, they could get rid of AOI tommorow if they wanted, but then they'd have to think about who's going to step up and do the drilling. Farole is due up for reelection soon and so doesn't have time to be looking for a new oil company to take the rights on. He's just got to hope AOI drill soon so he can tell the electorate that progress has been made developing Puntland's natural resources.

I'm not going to be holding my breath for a 27th July spud date- but then again I never was, and have always been here based on the Georgia/Trinidad/Texas plays, not Puntland. To me Puntland will be a nice bonus if it happens but I'm more concerned about developing our Georgia licences (and Trinidad when we get moving on that one!).