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TPM

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$8.93 tpg telecom limited

I concur, page-15

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G650er

564 Posts.

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12/04/18

08:40

Post #: 32395624
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Originally posted by hcraboc ↑

I have never doubted that TPG will continue to grow market share.
TPG are already the number two carrier in Australia for internet.
My concerns have been more around the costs of rolling out a mobile network.
Particularly one that is going to provide $30 unlimited plans with so little spectrum.
I see reduced profitability in the period 12-36 months as they pain of rolling out 2 new mobile networks is absorbed. The incumbents in both countries are going to fight back hard.
There should be no surprise with this analysis, many brokers are also showing reduced profit levels.
Reduced profitability = stagnant or declining share price, which is exactly what we have seen over the last 12 months. The smart money quite frankly has been shorting TPG or pulling their investment and moving on to greener pastures. TPG may well become the second largest carrier in the country. The incumbents are going to fight back with fistfuls of cash invested into 5G and will try to drive customers to 5G as quickly as possible. TPG will have no choice to increase its capital expenditure to stay relevant. A massive battle for the Australian Telco market is about to start in earnest. It’s very likely that TPG will gain market share, but make no mistake, every carrier will have a blood nose at least at the end of this battle. For this reason TPG’s share price could wallow at its current price for the next few years. Great company... maybe.... short-medium term returns appear to me to be challenged.

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Couldn't disagree more. If people believe TPM will win market share quickly the share price will be $20+

The market is a forward looking machine.

There are countless examples out there of similar disruptive models. This blood nose analogy is irrelevant. Amazon...venture capital....Tech companies that have billion dollar valuations with tiny revenue and big losses...The market is pricing in the future earnings potential for all of those. If the market doesn't for TPM I'm going all in as this will be one of the biggest mispricings around.

Last edited by G650er: 12/04/18

TPM Price at posting: $5.42 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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