When you don't agree with the direction, drop it and move...

When you don't agree with the direction, drop it and move on.......................Totally agree with this................................

But.....................I agree with the path NOW

Here are key reasons to consider investing in Telstra (ASX: TLS) today, based on current market analysis and strategic developments:

1. Strong Financial Performance and Growth Outlook

• Profit Growth: Telstra reported a 6.5% rise in HY25 net profit to $1.03 billion, with revenue up 1% to $11.8 billion, driven by a 5% increase in mobile revenue 11217.

• Future Earnings: Analysts project net profit to grow from $2.28 billion in FY25 to $3.29 billion by FY29 (44% growth), outperforming peers like Commonwealth Bank 113.

• Cost Efficiency: Telstra’s cost-cutting initiatives (e.g., $350 million under T25) and scalable network infrastructure support margin expansion 17.

2. Dividend Yield and Shareholder Returns

• Attractive Dividends: Forecasts suggest fully franked dividends of 19¢ (FY25) and 21¢ (FY26), offering grossed-up yields of 5.7% and 6.3% 13.

• Capital Management: A $750 million share buyback in 2025 and potential for further buybacks/special dividends signal confidence in cash flow 17.

3. Strategic Initiatives Driving Long-Term Value

• Connected Future 30 Plan: Targets mid-single-digit cash EPS growth and 10% ROIC by FY30, with AI investments ($700 million over 7 years) to enhance efficiency 311.

• Mobile Leadership: Telstra’s 5G rollout and premium network quality (119,000 new mobile subscribers in HY25) support pricing power and ARPU growth 14.

4. Defensive Appeal in Volatile Markets

• Resilient Sector: Communication services outperformed the ASX 200 (+6.5% in April 2025), with Telstra hitting 8-year highs amid market volatility 110.

• Interest Rate Sensitivity: Potential RBA rate cuts could make Telstra’s dividends more attractive relative to fixed-income alternatives 1.

5. Analyst Confidence and Valuation Upside

• Broker Upgrades: Macquarie raised its price target to $5.28 (12% upside), citing ROIC expansion and dividend growth, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $4.90 target 34.

• Fair Value: Morningstar’s revised fair value of $4.70 acknowledges Telstra’s defensive moat but notes shares are now fairly priced 4.

Risks to Consider:

• Regulatory Pressures: Potential NBN wholesale price hikes or government scrutiny 4.

• Competition: Rivals like Optus are also growing mobile revenue 17.

Conclusion: Telstra offers a blend of income (dividends), growth (mobile/5G), and defensive stability, making it a compelling pick for long-term investors. However, monitor execution risks and macroeconomic conditions 134.

For deeper analysis, refer to Telstra’s HY25 results 15 or broker reports.