7.5mmcf was quoted when gas prices we almost triple what they are now so yes I do extrapolate 7.5 x 2 or 3 to what is break even now. Hence 15-20mmcf at $4
Also since then costs have increased due to more debt and higher interest. I would say 20mmcf break even minimum also nobody is interested in break even rate of return is what counts. So the company owes shareholders $140 mill plus bank $50 mill its going to take alot more than break even to pay back its debt to shareholders and bank.At 20% more say 4mmcf extra wemay repay whats owed in what 100 years? to repay its debts not just to the bank in 20 years
it needs more like 40mmcf.
Have a look at the main players in shale gas in the US they too are up to their eyeballs in debt and they are yet to prove that they will prove to be economical in the medium to long term. These guys have hundreds of wells in Barnett shale and other areas owe hundreds of millions and are still struglling to get descent rates of return compared to ventures such as LNG in QLD or NW shelf.
IMO the US has tapped all its cheap gas and oil a long time ago I'm sticking to areas that have yet to have their real money making deposits exploited.
Seriously even the USA has invaded iraq because its basically the only not fully exploited sources of cheap oil left in the world.
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