Pains me because if i had done NOTHING, i would be sitting on a gain of $310,000 (@$12, about 775% return)! But being the smart person i am, i sold the lot 4 months later for an average of $2.75 a share. Why did i sell? Because it had doubled in 4 months, because it was “too good to be true”, how could it possibly keep going up, it’s only baby food?? Man, i was happy, $32k in 4 months! What a great trade!
Well the price didn’t stop going up and by $4 i was feeling like a fool, i had no good reason to sell, but had succomed to the most evil of investing/trading ideas, the compolsion to do something all the time to try and pick the top, to be a hero, overtrading, overthinking!
By $4.50 i realised i felt very uncumfortable not owning BAL, so got back in with a large parcel. I’ve still got that holding, and bought and sold at other times all the way up to $14.60 (I got a bit greedy, i’ll admit it, so my average price is a bit higher).
The more i read about BAL, and let me tell you there was almost nothing written pre Nov 2015, the more convinced i was that this company had something special. As Sandy68 said, and if you read the first page of the H1 report, BAL is making a difference to parents and babies lives and the people that work at Bellamy’s love what they do (most of the time i’m sure, anyway). This is more powerful than EPS, more powerful than EBIT Margin, Cash Flow or any other valuation ratio you can think of. It is the reason Bellamy’s will continue to grow and will continue to be a great business IMO, it’s a moat that is hard to replicate.
I hold BAL because it has been good for me, good for my daughter and i think ultimately good for Australia. I will continue to hold well into the future!
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