Tinny,It's probably worse than you think for wildcats:1)...

Tinny,

It's probably worse than you think for wildcats:
1) Industry norms are supposedly about 1 in 10, but that includes those drilled by the supermajors and the small fry on the asx. I would bet my left **** that the outcomes of the supermajors is way better than average, and that of the small fry much worse.
2) Touted predrill outcomes eg 32% are probably optimistic. In my observation if predrill risks were recalibrated for asx drill results over say the past 5 years they's be substantially lowered. eg how many successful wildcat drills from asx juniors in the past 3 years?
3) Successes are statistically counted even when (as usual) the success is a much smaller discovery than the predrill estimate.

And in summary is it any suprise the sharemarket will not pay more than 20 to 30% of a risked prospect value, at best. We'd all be suckers if we were prepared to pay for this prospect on the basis of 32% of predrill size estimate. Also why so many play besp. This is a HIGH risk game.

I hold, but not for this drill.

EL