re: i know it is down there eb If Leadville turns out the way we...

re: i know it is down there eb If Leadville turns out the way we all expect then many will be faced with that big decision of what to do with our holdings.

No doubt the sp will head north if Leadville shows a major gas interval and this could very well be as early as Monday morning.

Whereas the vol of resource needs to be proven, we can safely assume that there is ample gas to justify going commercial.

IMO the gamble to hold rests solely on porosity and flow testing. At the end-of-the-day, no one on HC would be in a position to give a qualified assessment of these two critical factors. So, the only guide we have is to research the history and success of nearby wells in the Paradox Basin.

I'm currently sitting on a modest 100t shares and the following is a plan I drew up of the way I see things going.

* assumption: resource 300Bcf

* Leadville - major gas interval: sp $1.50 ~ $2.00 (hold)

* Positive porosity and flow tests: sp $5 ~ $6.80 (hold)

I feel confident that the resource will be well in excess of 300Bcf, so I intend to hold until we get a proven resource.

The ratio of sp to resource vol I use to determine the sp is:

$2.30 : 100Bcf