November 23, 2022 ALP Government of Daniel Andrews set to win with a reduced majority as support for L-NP grows – but will the trend continue?
The ALP on 55% (down 2% points since early November) has an election-winning lead over the L-NP Coalition on 45% (up 2% points), on a two-party preferred basis, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted over the last two days with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,195 Victorian electors aged 18+.
Primary voting intention for both major parties down since the 2018 Victorian Election
Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 38% (down 4.9% points from the 2018 Victorian Election) ahead of the L-NP on 32.5% (down 2.7% points).
Support for the Greens is at 12.5% (up 1.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 17% (up 5.8% points). Among the minor parties support for ‘Teal Independents’ is now at 4.5% while there is 1% support for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, 0.5% support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and 11% support other minor parties and independents.
Approval for Premier Daniel Andrews down since early November, but Andrews has maintained his lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred Premier
Now 57.5% (down 1% point since early November) of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, while 42.5% (up 1% point) disapprove.
Electors were then asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”
Despite the small drop in approval for Premier Daniel Andrews in recent months the Premier has largely retained his large lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as the preferred Premier.
Now 65% (down 0.5% points) of electors say Daniel Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’ compared to only 35% (up 0.5% points) who say Matthew Guy – a margin of 30% points in favour of the Premier.
