i love it..., page-28

re: i love it...dorc dorc...

Hard to say with these extremely liquid, highly dynamic movers.

As the days go on however, we should gradually see a return to relative stability, as the fear and greed get replaced with common sense and patience.

From what I could ascertain however...we had quite a bit of accumulation today, albeit well disguised via a very heavy churn rate.

I suggest there are not 14.8m shares in the free float...more like less than half of that.

As such, we might need to ask ourselves, how many of these were taken out of the market permanently today?

The morning session was dominated by the effects of the suspension, resulting in a combination of t+3 forced selling, possible short covering, exit facilitation and reactive intra-day participants.

This group pretty much had there way at the open and the lead up into the spike to $6.00...however once their buying power began to subside, the larger players began actioning their strategies.

The sell-down that followed was facilitated to a great degree by a likely high volume churn from these larger players...net selling and loading the sell side on every attempted rally.

The intention would have been to force a combination of stop-loss triggers from intra-day entrants, recent temporary holders and perhaps even a few shadow jumping long-termers.

The push down was really quite dramatic...in fact I would not be surprised if a bit of stock was borrowed to help facilitate the effort?

In spite of the heavy volumes traded on the run-down, I suspect what we really saw was mostly just the churning of the same stock, over and over again, perhaps punctuated with the odd fresh stock as various triggers were breached.

I suspect many would have tried to catch the falling knife today, only to see they sell out a few minutes later as the price quickly fell below their stop-loss triggers. It is most likely that many people bought and sold many times during the day, possibly turning over 4 or 5 times the stock they are actually holding?

As you may be aware, I called a premature bottom around $3.00...the sentiment and underlying trend definitely shifted here, but the momentum of the sell-down combined (no doubt) with the help from the larger players, pushed it down a bit further.

Anyway...from this point onwards...the net selling appeared to became a net buying strategy...still well concealed however by the ongoing churn.

When all is said and done, I feel we have seen little more than 4m shares from the free-float hit the markets today...so when one assumes at least half of this would have been picked up by serious players, it is conceivable we have as few as 2m or so shares available at current levels.

Of course, as the price rises further, we can expect this float to increase...but if as I suspect, some larger players are accumulating with a long term view, likewise we can expect just as much if not more stock is being taken out of the free float on a daily basis.

As for tomorrow...I think it may well rally from the open...but ultimately, this may depend on the bigger end of town and exactly what they see as the best way to get what they want.

Regardless of tomorrow or even Wednesday however, we will eventually see AUM settle somewhat...and once again return to the progression of the value model commensurate with what they are pulling out of the ground.

In the heat of the trading moment, I am afraid people often forget this little detail.

Cheers!