I am not going to bother with an in depth explanation about why dividends don't matter but if anyone wants a printed thesis on the matter then I am happy to direct you to one of the better ones. Dividends are NOT the basis for setting the share price though, unless you use a dividend discount model to value your shares. But nobody here on these forums (and nobody who has taken 1st year finance and remembers a damn thing) uses a DDM, and in fact, I'd be surprised if anyone on these forums uses any model at all to value anything that I can see. All I see are chartists and speculators.
The share price should equate to the net present value of the cash flows from the underlying assets, if cash flows are steady, visible and relatively predictable. A company or trust either chooses to pay those cash flows out or invest them. The decision for an investor is whether they feel they can get a better return on that cash in their hand than the company can, and then (circular argument) if that's what you think, why would you even hold the shares?
If a company's cash flows are less than predictable but it has a long history of visible earnings then you can capitalise earnings (earnings capitalization model). When a company or trust has no earnings, its safe to say that they aren't paying divs, and so you value such a thing with your prayers and hope for the best.
As for tax, why do you want a distribution when you have to pay tax on it? Unless you need to cahs to eat then you DON'T want income, as any deferred tax is value accretive. Tax now is tax now. You pay it. If you don;t pay tax you can earn interst on that money. Is there a tax benefit to a trust for paying a distribution? Good question. But if there is it would be a a minor benefot to you as a shareholder compared to paying income tax on your distribution, which would be a major drag.
Thank you and good night.
CER Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
