No one can predict sp.
Even the smartest economist in the world can't do this job as good as you can.
The greatest physicist in history, Issac Newton, lost his money from sharemarket.
His beautiful equation of motion can exactly predict the future of an object
providing that the speed of the object is much less than that of light
and the size of the object is much greater than a scale of subatomic particles.
Anyway, this great physicist got wrong on sp.
As far as I know, no mathematical model exists to predict sp.
sp is very mysterious and complicate guy which can not be modeled mathematically.
sp is a function of muti-variables. Some of them can not be quantified, e.g., psychological sentiment.
In order to make a mathematical model, all the variables should be quantified.
sp seems to me shows a nonlinear behavior. In that case, it can not be solved easily.
In a nonlinear situation, if one of variable changes slightly, the result sometimes does enormously.
Then what we can do about sp to enter/exit a position.
You need to build your own trading system which may take a long time.
In this volatile and hard global economy environments, you need a very hard work not to lose your money.
Almost shares are in a downtrend, at the moment.
You may try to find a bottom. But it's an impossible task.
In my opinion, you first choose whether your investment is a short, mid, or long term.
For a short (mid) term, you can manage to make money from a relief (sucker's) rally even in this downtrend.
I think each share has its own characteristics. So you need to research how its sp moves using a chart.
It may be much successful if you find a share which sp movement has a pattern
(e.g., NCM when it was in a downtrend, I entered at $17.31).
Also you need always check its fundamental fact.
Even you have completed you research carefully, it can guarantee your success.
You need your stop loss and discipline. Don't rely on your hope/wish. You should accept Mr Market.
If you are a long term investor, you need to read more general sentiment of global economy.
In particular, you should read business failure, real estate price (in Aussie), unemployment rate, etc.
As far as I know, when real estate price is depressed, it's time to start investing in share market.
In my opinion, real estate price in Aussie is still healthy.
Just my opinion.
Good luck.
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