Does anyone really have an idea of what the catylyst for the property collapse will be as I have been reading this thread for some time now and no one has provided any hard evidence as to what the catylyst will be. And I am looking at a Catylyst like the US Subprime catylyst.
I do admit the banking regulations we had in place here were somewhat better than the regulations imposed on overseas banks prior to Subprime. Coupled with this you have the mining boom and inflation in real assets ticking away. At present these things seem to be protecting us from a down turn in the economy and somewhat protecting leveraged property investors.
While I am a bear on the property market. I don't see a massive big collapse like some are predicting.
I see a slow decline over the next three years of perhaps about 10 to 20%. We need to see much higher interest rates or massive unemployment before a collapse in property prices of somewhere between 30 - 50%.
Believe me I want to believe that prices will fall as I have been saving my pennies over the years to buy a nice place with no debt. I just can't see what the catylyst will be. I am aware the high Aussie dollar will have an impact on retailers profits but will this be enough to affect the entire economy?
