I sold my 550k position - here's why, page-43

Just remember that the last two days of trading represents only 3,2 million shares which is below 1.5% of the shares in issue. And a 10% pullback is not unexpected when a share has run up over 100% in the last month with no new information to hand. The easiest profits have been made here, but that doesn't mean that there is not significant potential upside left.

I started filling up at 28c and topped up for the last time at $1.20 odd. Have taken some profits along the way, but still feel very bullish. My timeframe from here is 2 - 3 years.

My thesis is that both likely outcomes represent value at current levels. I would far prefer to hear that a settlement has been reached as I think this will unlock the most value over the medium term ($2.50+ on announcement with additional moves on mine reopening, JORG results, closing of TDG deal etc.). I also think that this is the likely outcome - 75% in my estimation. Could see a further push-out of TAFTA if negotiations are not quite there and this will flush out more weak holders. TAFTA award is my next most likely at 20%. I would see this again delivering a fair bit more upside to the share price, but also uncertainty over timing, Thai willingness to settle and uncertainty over what this means for Chatree which we would still own. A TAFTA ruling against the company is at most a 5% likelihood, probably closer to zero, but not zero.

We await the inevitable announcement in the next 10 days, either positive or negative and then this opportunity turns from a Litigation play into a mining play with all the associated risk/rewards (resource, exploration successes or not, mining operational risk, political risk, PM price risk etc). If we assume that a deal is done, then the mining play looks very promising and looks to be incredible value.