Well now June is just a stone throw away it's time to anticipate multiple news items.
It's the month I've been waiting for, and we should hopefully see developments in the following areas:
1) HRV phase II trial results - I'm not sure what to make of this, phase II is always a hard one to pick. It will either work or not work. No matter the result, because so many eyes are on BTA (traders mostly) a positive or negative result is likely to be magnified. However I believe it's a world first for a "cure" for the common cold.
2) RSV developments - BTA have been pretty quiet on this but if they move to Phase II it should trigger a milestone payment, possible double digit. A most welcome development if it occurs.
3) LANI results - I'm expecting as good or better results than Phase II. Phase II was a large trial and I see no reason Phase III would fail. If anything this trial was performed during a flu season where tamiflu was ineffective against H1N1 which forms affects part of total flu sufferers. LANI works against this strain. This could be big news if we get a headline like "LANI works better than Tamiflu"... it would be another global headline given the swine flu spotlight. Further this this, we could also see a formal announcement on whether LANI works against Swine Flu... this could trigger a cascade of other developments including but not limited to emergency approval by the FDA. We should also be looking for an announcement on how they plan to develop the drug outside Japan... a global partner (my preferred option) or inhouse (Okay as long as Biota get half the profits... which means capital raising and heavy investment in trials/plants).
4)GSK production announcement - If the WHO raise the pandemic level to 6 then it could trigger more orders for Relenza. Possibly above the current production capacity and this would be major for next years profit (something the market loves to value stocks on). They are looking for partners. We could also see emergency approval from the FDA regarding how Relenza is delivered. Again, this could be a major development in terms of securing large orders.
5) In around 6 weeks we should see another quarterly royalty announcement. Perhaps not as high as the previous quarter but it should be solid. Cash in bank should rise and hopefully BTA declare a dividend (unless they decide to help fund a global roll out of LANI).
BTA Price at posting:
$1.41 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
