i think this will spicy things up today, page-2

just found this. what interested me was the NTA value for AIO $2.96.

INFRASTRUCTURE
Asciano Limited (AIO)
Genie is out of the bottle


We initiate coverage on AIO with a BUY recommendation and target price of $1.70ps. Our view is based on the assessment that the company is now serious about fixing its over-leveraged balance sheet, and has made progress with its monetisation program. Despite varied scenarios, the sale program should deliver a favourable outcome to AIO’s shareholders.

The Monetisation Program – the catalyst. The asset auction is a drawn-out process and the outcome may not be as simple as the sale of the full group. Nonetheless, the monetisation program should achieve its goal of deleveraging AIO’s balance sheet in the coming months, thus encouraging investors to value AIO’s assets appropriately.

Asset sales – $1b is a good start, but $2b is better. AIO’s current target to reduce debt by just over $1b is a good start, but may not be enough to fix the capital structure. We suggest the company bites the bullet and de-gear the balance sheet by retiring over $2b of debt and reducing its Net Debt/ EBITDA to an acceptable level of 4.5-5.0x.

On the block – Rail, Ports, Combo or all of AIO? AIO should consider selling 50% of Rail and 50% of Ports and reduce leverage to c4x Net Debt/ EBITDA, thus gaining flexibility to fund organic growth. Only if unable to implement this, AIO should then contemplate selling 100% of either asset or the entire group. The sale of the entire group is a cleaner option, and may fetch up to its NTA of $2.96ps – an upside of 120%.