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Equities are indicating a better scenario than bonds as they...

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    Equities are indicating a better scenario than bonds as they appear to have disconnected. The bond market is usually more reliable, so I would say there is a reasonable chance of recession. There is too much emphasis on whether a number is negative for two quarters though imho. If there is a downturn, then monetary and fiscal policy settings will be adjusted, probably in a counter cyclical way to smooth out the cycle.
 
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