his newsletter from PackerCo (going nearly 30 years and seem to...

his newsletter from PackerCo (going nearly 30 years and seem to be a good investment manager (but low key) is very interesting (there was an article about it in the AFR a few days ago).
https://www.packerco.com/media/newsletters/PackerCo_June2021.pdf

I highly recommend reviewing it. It covers a good deal of history. I tend to agree with their views (which I arrived at before reading this document) especially inflation but they may turn out to be a bit early (in my view that is only of months) but nothing wrong with that.

They have a significant exposure to gold (14% mainly gold itself) and a high cash level (39%).

The quotes I found interesting were (they are not alone in their views):

• We are convinced we are facing one of the most dangerous points in stock market history and have no interest in risking your capital in the present environment.
• Right now, we believe we are in a giant stock market bubble with asset prices at ridiculously high valuations whilst economies run hot on
  government largesse. We have rarely seen a riskier cocktail.
• Many seem convinced that governments can spend forever without consequences, whilst at the same time interest rates will never rise.
• We fear that these are incredibly risky assumptions to make, and that those buying stocks right now are entering the market at a treacherous time.
• Speculation on the stock market has become manic with trading volumes quadrupling year on year.
• A lot of this frenzied trading is financed by bank loans, with margin lending up over 70% year on year. The last two times this occurred were in the years 2000 and 2008, heralding both stock market tops
• Politicians, government bureaucrats and so called “business leaders” are busily slapping each other on the back over their brilliant “rescue” packages. In our view it looks more like popping the champagne corks before the harvest has even
  started.
• Meanwhile prices for steel, oil, chemicals, timber, computer chips and shipping services are all soaring. Central bankers argue that these are temporary trends, however it seems this will only be the case if the wider “economic recovery” is also temporary.
• Many seem to be ploughing money into shares in fear of an inflationary breakout, but the problem is that when stocks are already at such elevated valuations, future profits are far from guaranteed.
• Before the last major inflationary wave in the 1970s, stocks were priced for perfection, similar to today.