BRN 0.00% 31.0¢ brainchip holdings ltd

I Want To Believe, page-383

  1. 1,720 Posts.
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    The first couple of rising phases are where no-one really believes in the stock. They watch it and watch it and believe that it'll pull back. When it doesn't (in the case of this particular chart I pasted) then people chase it out of fear of missing out. Then it over-extends on the upside, and pulls back heavily - mainly because there are always delays, as keep being pointed out. The will happen to Splitt-it soon, so they have all these phases to look forward to. (If you have any, sell them all tomorrow)

    Where this chart relates in my opinion to BRN is that these normal delays have now become excessive. To make things worse, your leader has made promises that did not come true. He didn't need to do that, there is enough belief in the technology, so making these claims has now damaged people's belief in anything he says. They may be on the verge of a deal, but like the boy who cried wolf he is losing peoples faith.

    Now what we are seeing is "long term holders" and people that state "I'll never ever sell this stock" are slowly seeing their value evaporate. They believe in the tech, and so they should, but their value is dropping daily, and accelerating down, and their belief is being tested. Slowly, bit by bit, they get disillusioned and remember their belief in the tech and their expectations that their investment will pay them off handsomely - but it is being eroded. 

    Volume dies up on the buy side. The sellers put their sell orders on higher hoping for a bounce so they can at least recover some value from todays price, but when it doesn't bounce they move them down...and down...and down... then all of a sudden there are very few buyers,a lot of sellers and kaboom...panic on the downside. Capitulation. Then it bounces in light volume, but unless there is a significant reason for a bounce, it drifts away again and the bounce fades. Then everyone gives up and stops looking at it. Despair. Sadly in this case, there will also be a capital raising to dilute any recovery.

    In order for this not to play out there needs to be a significant change. In the case of an oil company, they need to find oil. In the case of a mining company they need to make a discovery. In the case of Brainchip, they need an Independant Chairman at the barest minimum, they need at least some sort of revenue based deal, they probably need a new CEO (but that's a bit too controversial for this post).

    Now. Let me be clear. Bots are not a thing in a pissant ASX listed company like Brainchip. They are a fantasy. If you see someone buying or selling small parcels it is just that they have instructed their broker to average in or out. 

    Also, ordinary people are idiots, especially when it comes to money. If you haven't worked that out by now... BRN is exacerbated by the people who believe the tech will be enough to make their shares increase in value. The tech is great, but in order for a company to be worth $87m it needs to prove revenue is coming or down she goes.

    The 'Straw is annoyed' phase is due to people pointing out the problems with the management of the company that is causing it to fall in value and Straw taking it personally because he/she believes in the tech, and believes that belief is enough because Straw is smart. Straw may be smart, but he/she must also accept that if the share price is the scoreboard then he/she is currently losing the battle. He/she may win in the end, and then he/she can say "I told you so look at my Ferrari", but right now that annoyance is your pride effing with you.

 
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